Morgan Stanley sees higher aluminium, copper prices
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Morgan Stanley & Co, the second-biggest US securities firm, expects the price of aluminium, copper and lead to rise in 2008, driven by strong demand and rising risks of supply shortfalls.
“Notwithstanding the weakness in the US, global demand remains strong while supply growth continues to suffer,” Morgan Stanley said in an Oct.12 report.
Aluminium may average $2,900 a tonne, up from its 2007 estimate of $2,700 a tonne on high smelter costs, a tight alumina market, and rising bauxite prices, it said. Copper may average $8,300 a tonne, up from $7,400 a tonne forecast for this year, amid strong Chinese imports and expectations of output disruptions, the firm forecasts.
“Soaring freight rates, infrastructure bottlenecks, safety and labour issues, increased political risk, growing environmental constraints, and major power constraints threaten to overwhelm base metals production,” wrote the firm’s analysts, led by New York based Mr. Hussein Allidina.
Lead prices may average $4,000 a tonne in 2008, and $2,800 a tonne this year because of continued supply disruptions and near-inelastic demand for the metals as a cheap and reliable source of battery power.
The banks expects nickel to average $38,700 a tonne this year and $38,600 a tonne in 2008.
Zinc is forecast to average $3,400 a tonne this year and $3,300 a tonne in 2008.
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Source : Business Line |
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